Ebooks finally ready for prime time?
BusinessWeek has an online article today about the possibility of electronic books finally breaking through. The most important factors seem to be the refinement of electronic ink (which makes a more legible, low-power display than LCD screens) and the success of the iPod and iTunes, showing that significant numbers of people will pay for downloadable digital content.
I can’t wait until we get to the point where we can replace the thirty pounds of textbooks kids pack around with digital equivalents. It will also make it easier to keep textbooks up to date, and allow publishers greater flexibility in adapting textbooks to regional needs. (It also would make it much easier to take advantage of open source textbooks or develop staff-written materials.) It also means that books can be “kept in print” essentially forever, which is great for the vast majority of books that don’t hit bestseller status.
But while I love where the technology is going, from what I’ve seen so far the mainstream publishing industry doesn’t seem to understand what they’re doing. All of the proposed pricing I’ve seen so far comes out to about at 30% discount over the cost of a printed book. Since the cost of actually printing a real book is quite high, and the advantages of a printed book over an ephemeral digital copy are also pretty high, I don’t see that price structure as workable, especially when the Amazon.com discount is about the same. If a non-geek reader is going to switch from using paper-based books to electronic ones, there has to be a significant motivation for the change of habit. That can be convenience, or price, or probably both. Most people using ebooks now do it for convenience, but I don’t think the average consumer will make the shift until the pricing is the major advantage. After all, when I’m done with a print book, I can shelve it, loan it out, or donate it to the local library. I won’t be able to do any of that with an electronic copy.
We’ll see if the publishers figure this out. If they insist on keeping the prices too high, the market may end up restricted to niches like textbooks and specialty publications where the convenience factor outweighs concerns about pricing. On the other hand, maybe it will provide an opening for new, aggressive small publishers to bring low-priced ebooks to the market that aren’t currently possible in a world dominated by a few giant publishing conglomerates. The only thing we know for sure is that we don’t know what will happen, and that’s what makes it so darned fun to watch.